China has launched large-scale military exercises encircling Taiwan, deploying army, navy, air force, and rocket units in a show of force that Beijing says is a “serious warning” against Taiwanese independence and what it calls interference by “external forces.” The drills, coming just weeks after the announcement of a landmark US arms deal with Taiwan, have sharply escalated tensions in one of the world’s most sensitive geopolitical flashpoints.
The two-day exercises, officially named “Justice Mission-2025,” are being conducted by the People’s Liberation Army under its Eastern Theater Command. According to Chinese military statements, the drills are designed to test combat readiness and rehearse “blockade and control of key ports and critical areas” surrounding the self-governed island.
Live-fire activities and rocket launches have been confirmed by both Chinese and Taiwanese authorities. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said that rockets fired on Tuesday landed in waters north and southwest of the island, with some impacting closer to Taiwan than in previous exercises.
“These exercises are a blatant act of military intimidation,” Taiwan’s government said in a statement, adding that its armed forces were “fully on guard” and prepared to “take concrete action to defend the values of democracy and freedom.”
A Surge in Military Activity
The scale of the drills has been significant. Over the past 24 hours, Taiwan’s defense ministry said China deployed 130 military aircraft and 22 naval vessels around the island. Of those sorties, 90 crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait—an informal boundary Beijing does not recognize but had largely respected until recent years—and entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
This marks the second-highest number of Chinese warplanes ever recorded around Taiwan, surpassed only by the October 2024 drills, when 153 aircraft were deployed over a 25-hour period.
Taiwan’s military responded by scrambling fighter jets, deploying naval vessels, and activating coastal missile systems. Lieutenant General Hsieh Jih-sheng, deputy chief of the general staff for intelligence, noted that the proximity of some rocket landings represented an escalation. “Some of the projectiles landed closer than before,” he said, underscoring growing concern in Taipei.
The drills have also disrupted civilian life. According to Taiwan’s Civil Aviation Administration, more than 6,000 travelers have been affected, with 76 domestic flights canceled and 14 delayed due to airspace restrictions.
Timing Linked to US Arms Deal
Analysts say the timing of the drills is unlikely to be coincidental. Earlier this month, Washington and Taipei announced what could become one of the largest US military sales to Taiwan to date—an $11.1 billion package that includes HIMARS rocket systems, anti-tank and anti-armor missiles, loitering drones, howitzers, and advanced military software.
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has also proposed a historic $40 billion special defense budget, though it remains stalled in Taiwan’s opposition-controlled legislature.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi addressed the issue directly in Beijing on Tuesday, saying, “In the face of repeated provocations from the ‘Taiwan independence’ forces and the large-scale arms sales of the United States to Taiwan, it is only natural that we firmly oppose them and take forceful countermeasures.”
China’s defense ministry echoed that stance. “This exercise serves as a serious warning to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and external interfering forces,” Eastern Theater Command spokesperson Shi Yi said, in what appeared to be a veiled reference to the US and its allies.
Washington Watches Closely
Asked about the drills, US President Donald Trump struck a characteristically calm tone. “I have a great relationship with President Xi Jinping,” he said, adding, “Nothing worries me.” Trump suggested he did not believe China was preparing an invasion, though he acknowledged awareness of the exercises.
The United States formally recognizes the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China but maintains close unofficial ties with Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act, which obligates Washington to provide Taipei with the means to defend itself.
Beijing, however, sees Taiwan as its principal “red line” in US-China relations. The Chinese Communist Party claims the island as its territory despite never having controlled it and has vowed to bring it under its authority, by force if necessary.
Practicing a Blockade?
Military analysts say the latest drills appear more explicitly focused on denying foreign military access to the region. Notices issued by China’s Maritime Safety Administration listed seven exercise zones, including areas designated for live-fire drills. Taken together, analysts argue, these zones amount to a “de facto blockade” within the Taiwan Strait.
“The PLA aims to deny intervention by foreign military forces in conflicts around Taiwan and keep them out,” said Chieh Chung of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research. “Beijing is being very explicit about that objective in this drill.”
Taipei-based think tank Secure Taiwan Associate Corporation noted that the overall designated exercise area is larger than in recent drills, covering nearly all sea routes linking Taiwan to its strategically important outlying islands of Kinmen and Matsu.
Propaganda and Pressure
Alongside the military maneuvers, Beijing has rolled out a wave of nationalist propaganda aimed at domestic audiences. State-linked social media accounts released posters showing fiery arrows raining down on Taiwan, captioned “Arrow of Justice, Control and Denial.” An AI-generated video titled “Joint Operations to Thwart ‘Taiwan Independence’ Attempts” depicted robot dogs, humanoid machines, and warships advancing on the island.
President Lai responded with a strong condemnation, saying China was “disregarding the international community’s expectations for peace” and undermining regional stability through coercion. “Taiwan will not escalate tensions,” he said, “but we will not back down in the face of threats.”
A Region on Edge
With Chinese aircraft and ships now appearing almost daily around Taiwan, and major exercises growing in scale and sophistication, regional observers warn that the line between drills and real-world conflict is becoming increasingly blurred.
As Beijing, Taipei, and Washington trade warnings and reassurances, the latest war games serve as a stark reminder that Taiwan remains one of the most dangerous fault lines in global geopolitics—where military signaling, political resolve, and miscalculation could have far-reaching consequences.
