Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in New Delhi for a two-day state visit, receiving a warm welcome and an embrace from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The annual summit between the two nations is expected to yield several agreements — and it comes at a moment of heightened geopolitical tension, economic pressure, and intense global scrutiny.
The visit follows months of rising strain between India and the United States, fueled largely by Washington’s push for New Delhi to reduce its dependence on discounted Russian crude. At the same time, the US under President Donald Trump is attempting a new diplomatic push involving both Russia and Ukraine.
Despite these cross-currents, India and Russia remain long-standing partners, with Modi and Putin maintaining a particularly close rapport.
Why Russia Sees India as a Strategic Lifeline
A Massive Market and Surging Economy
For Moscow, India represents a crucial economic opportunity:
- Population: Nearly 1.5 billion
- Growth: One of the fastest-expanding major economies globally
- Energy Demand: The world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil
Following Western sanctions, Russia offered steep oil discounts — and India stepped in as a major buyer. Before the Ukraine war, Russian oil comprised just 2.5% of India’s imports. That number later soared to 35%.
While India benefitted, the US accused New Delhi of helping fund Russia’s war machinery. The Trump administration responded by placing an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, prompting India to scale back its purchases somewhat. Putin, however, hopes to reverse that trend.
Defence Ties That Go Back Decades
From Soviet times onward, Russia has been India’s most reliable defence supplier. Although India has diversified over the last decade, Russian equipment still forms the backbone of its military:
- Most of India’s 29 fighter squadrons include Russian Su-30 jets
- The S-400 air defence system played a crucial role during India’s recent skirmishes
- India is exploring deals for the Su-57 fifth-generation fighter, and possibly the S-500 system
As Russia faces workforce shortages and sanctions-related constraints, India also represents a valuable market for high-skill labour and defence collaboration.
Geopolitical Messaging
Putin’s visit is also symbolic.
Travelling to India — just months after meeting China’s Xi Jinping — helps the Kremlin signal that it is not isolated despite Western efforts. A visible alliance with major Asian powers strengthens Moscow’s narrative of a “multi-polar world,” positioning Russia as a central player outside the Western sphere.
Why the Visit Is Crucial for Modi
A Test of India’s Strategic Autonomy
Modi has consistently defended a policy of “strategic autonomy” — retaining close ties with both Russia and the West. While the US and Europe press India to distance itself from Moscow, Modi has refused to condemn Russia outright, insisting that dialogue remains the only path to resolving the Ukraine conflict.
This balancing act is now under intense strain:
- India-US relations have soured due to Trump’s steep tariffs
- European powers (Germany, France, UK) recently criticized Russia in a rare joint op-ed
- India is simultaneously negotiating a major trade pact with Washington
Putin’s arrival tests Modi’s ability to maintain equilibrium between competing global powers.
Fixing a Skewed Trade Relationship
India-Russia trade has surged from $8.1 billion in 2020 to $68.72 billion in 2025, driven almost entirely by discounted crude. This has created a massive imbalance in Russia’s favour.
To correct this, India wants:
- Faster defence deliveries (S-400 consignments already face delays)
- Greater access for Indian products in Russian markets
- Reduced reliance on oil-driven trade
- More economic cooperation in sectors like pharmaceuticals, consumer goods and manufacturing
India’s exports to Russia remain unusually low, especially in retail and electronics — something Modi wants to change.
Urgent Defence Modernization
Pakistan’s acquisition of China’s J-35 stealth fighters has added urgency to India’s search for cutting-edge jets. Moscow’s Su-57 is one of the few options available immediately — but Russia’s own industrial bottlenecks pose challenges.
Modi is expected to seek:
- Clearer timelines for pending deliveries
- Guarantees on supply chains
- Assurance that sanctions will not disrupt future deals
The Road Ahead: Balancing Washington, Moscow and Beijing
Putin’s visit is more than ceremonial. It represents a pivotal moment for India’s foreign policy:
- A modest outcome will shore up energy supplies and defence ties.
- A deeper breakthrough could reshape regional trade and influence supply chains from Europe to Asia.
- A misstep risks weakening India’s position with either the US or Russia — both vital to its strategic goals.
Ultimately, the visit underscores the same message India has been signalling for years:
New Delhi will not choose sides. It will chart its own course.
