India is preparing to host Russian President Vladimir Putin for a two-day visit in early December, underscoring New Delhi’s intent to strengthen strategic and economic cooperation with Moscow despite facing steep trade penalties from the United States over Russian oil imports.
Putin is scheduled to visit India on December 4–5 for the 23rd annual India-Russia summit, where discussions are expected to focus on expanding trade, defense cooperation, and long-term strategic partnerships.
Political risk analyst Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group said the visit reflects India’s desire to preserve close ties with Russia at a time when it views the United States as increasingly unpredictable and China as a strategic rival.
South Asia expert Chietigj Bajpaee from Chatham House added that the summit highlights India’s commitment to an independent foreign policy, regardless of pressure from Washington.
The Kremlin has described the visit as highly significant, noting that Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will discuss the full spectrum of their “special and privileged strategic partnership,” including politics, trade, and economic collaboration. Several bilateral business and government agreements are also expected to be signed.
Trade Imbalance Takes Center Stage
Trade expansion is expected to dominate the summit agenda, particularly as New Delhi looks to correct the sharp imbalance in bilateral commerce. According to the India Brand Equity Foundation, total India-Russia trade reached $68.7 billion in the fiscal year ending March 2025. However, Indian exports accounted for only $4.9 billion, while imports from Russia surged to $63.8 billion.
Both nations aim to push bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030. India is expected to expand exports of pharmaceuticals, chemicals, food products and industrial machinery, while Russia is offering greater cooperation in civilian nuclear technology, including the construction of small modular nuclear reactors.
Defense and civil nuclear collaboration remain key pillars of the relationship. However, some analysts question Russia’s capacity to deliver on major arms deals due to supply-chain constraints.
Between 2020 and 2024, Russia supplied 36% of India’s total arms imports, followed by France at 33% and Israel at 13%, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Russia’s share, however, has steadily declined from previous decades as India diversifies its defense suppliers.
India Navigates U.S. Tariff Pressure
India’s outreach to Russia comes as it faces mounting economic pressure from Washington. The United States has imposed a cumulative 50% tariff on certain Indian goods as a penalty for continued purchases of discounted Russian oil. These tariffs, among the highest levied on any nation, came into force in late August.
Washington has accused New Delhi of importing Russian crude and reselling refined products internationally at a profit, effectively supporting Moscow’s war economy. Indian officials have defended their stance, asserting that oil imports are driven by the energy needs of over 1.4 billion residents.
To preserve relations with the U.S., India has increased energy imports from American suppliers. Indian state-owned refiners recently signed a one-year agreement to import 2.2 million tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas from the U.S.
Meanwhile, recent U.S. sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil have slowed Russian crude shipments to India in the short term. However, analysts at Kpler expect flows to rebound through alternative trading structures.
Geopolitical advisors estimate that failure to secure a long-term U.S.-India trade pact could cost India up to $20 billion in lost trade surplus, while discounted Russian oil currently saves the country roughly $8 billion annually—highlighting the economic stakes of New Delhi’s balancing act.
Peace Efforts and Global Implications
Putin’s India visit coincides with renewed U.S. efforts to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Earlier this week, Putin held extensive talks in Moscow with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The Kremlin described the discussions as constructive, though no breakthrough was announced.
India has a strong interest in a peaceful settlement, as it would ease international scrutiny of its partnership with Russia and stabilize global energy markets.
