A new national NBC News poll reveals a precarious political landscape for the Republican Party, as President Trump’s approval remains underwater amid a burgeoning conflict with Iran and persistent economic anxiety. With Democrats holding a six-point lead in the generic congressional ballot, the administration’s handling of immigration and trade is facing sharp scrutiny from a weary electorate.
The political honeymoon often afforded to a second-term president has proven elusive for Donald Trump. As the United States enters the opening stages of a high-stakes military conflict with Iran, the domestic political fallout is already becoming visible. According to the latest NBC News national survey, a majority of registered voters disapprove of the president’s decision to order strikes against Iranian targets—a military intervention that began just last weekend and has quickly become a focal point of national discontent.
This shift toward a war footing coincides with a deepening sense of economic frustration. Despite the administration’s efforts to frame the national narrative around growth, voters are increasingly pessimistic. The poll finds that a staggering 62% of voters disapprove of the president’s handling of inflation and the cost of living. These issues, which were foundational to Trump’s 2024 victory, have now become a liability. The sentiment is underscored by a sobering reality for the average household: only 27% of voters report that their personal financial situation is improving, while 38% say it is actively worsening.
The administration’s trade policy has also come under fire following a turbulent month in the legal system. After the Supreme Court struck down the president’s primary tariff program in February, the subsequent decision to reimpose those levies has met with public resistance. Fifty-five percent of respondents stated that the administration’s tariff policies have actively hurt the economy, a sharp reversal from his first term when his protectionist stance was viewed more favorably by the GOP base and swing voters alike.
On the legislative front, the “blue wall” of opposition appears to be strengthening. Democrats currently hold a six-point advantage (50% to 44%) in the fight for control of Congress. While Republicans maintain narrow majorities in both the House and Senate, the path to retaining power is narrowing. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates noted that the combination of military escalation and economic “bread-and-butter” issues has created an electorate that is “once again fed up with those in power.”
Perhaps most surprising are the shifting views on immigration and border security, long considered the bedrock of Trump’s political identity. While 53% of voters still approve of his handling of “border security” as a concept, his specific “immigration” policies receive a 54% disapproval rating. This disconnect is largely attributed to a series of high-profile tragedies and aggressive enforcement actions. The deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti—two U.S. citizens killed by immigration officers in Minnesota this January—have ignited a firestorm of criticism.
The fallout from these events led to the recent firing of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who had served as the public face of the administration’s mass deportation strategy. However, her removal has not yet stabilized the administration’s standing on the issue. While voters still trust Republicans over Democrats on the specific task of securing the border by a 27-point margin, that lead has eroded from 31 points in October.
The survey also highlights a complex shift in American attitudes toward the role of immigrants in society. Sixty percent of Americans now say that immigration helps the United States more than it hurts, a significant increase from the 50% recorded just before the 2024 election. This suggests that while the public desires an orderly border, they are increasingly uncomfortable with the humanitarian and social costs of the administration’s current enforcement mechanisms.
In the realm of election integrity, the president continues to find a more receptive audience for his rhetoric, even as his legal arguments falter. A slim majority (51%) of voters say they are more concerned with ensuring that ineligible people do not vote than they are with expanding voting access. This represents a major shift from 2021, when the priority was overwhelmingly focused on access. Trump has sought to capitalize on this by pushing for an overhaul of national voting laws, doubling down on claims regarding the 2020 and 2024 cycles.
As the 2026 midterm elections approach, voter engagement is reaching levels usually reserved for the final weeks of a presidential campaign. Sixty-four percent of voters rate their interest in the upcoming election as a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale. Notably, Democrats report higher levels of “extreme interest” (74%) compared to Republicans (61%), suggesting a significant enthusiasm gap that could play a decisive role in turnout-heavy swing districts.
“Democrats had an advantage on the economy in previous years when they’ve enjoyed big election wins,” observed Republican pollster Bill McInturff. He warned that for the first time in years, Republicans have lost their traditional edge on economic stewardship, with both parties now tied at 40% on the question of who would better handle the economy. “When Republicans start losing the economic agenda,” McInturff said, “it’s usually a sign they are in deep trouble.”
With the nation at war abroad and grappling with high prices at home, the president faces a narrowing window to course-correct before the first ballots of the midterms are cast. The data suggests that the “outsider” appeal that once shielded Donald Trump from traditional political gravity may finally be yielding to the harsh realities of incumbency.
