Prospective U.S. green card applicants could see a significant shift in 2027, as immigration attorneys predict that tens of thousands of unused family-based immigrant visas may be reallocated to employment-based categories due to recent Trump administration travel and visa restrictions.
Experts say a combination of expanded country bans, suspended immigrant visa processing, and annual quota rules under U.S. immigration law could create a rare opportunity for skilled foreign workers, potentially accelerating green card timelines for employment-based applicants in the next fiscal cycle.
Why This Matters: Immigration Policy Tightens Under Trump
The development comes amid a broader tightening of U.S. immigration policy, as President Donald Trump’s second-term administration intensifies restrictions on both legal and illegal migration pathways.
In December, Trump signed a proclamation expanding a travel ban affecting dozens of countries.
In January, the U.S. State Department announced it would suspend immigrant visa processing for citizens of 75 countries, citing a November executive order imposing stricter eligibility and vetting standards.
These measures are expected to slow or halt the issuance of family-based immigrant visas, creating a backlog — and possibly leaving thousands of visa slots unused within the current fiscal year.
How Unused Family Visas Spill Over to Employment-Based Green Cards
According to immigration attorney Rahul Reddy, partner at Reddy Neumann Brown, U.S. immigration operates under a fixed annual quota system, with limits divided between family-based and employment-based green cards.
“If in a particular fiscal year the family quota is not used up, then that extra — the wasted green cards — will be given next year to the employment-based green cards,” Reddy explained on a company podcast.
Under existing immigration law:
- The fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30
- Each category has numerical caps
- Unused family-based visas automatically roll over to employment-based allocations the following year
This means employment-based green card applicants may benefit if family-based visa issuance declines sharply due to travel bans.
Estimate: Up to 50,000 Additional Employment-Based Green Cards in 2027
Emily Neumann, another partner at the firm, cited Department of State data to estimate the scale of potential spillover.
“Looking at 2024 data, we analyzed countries affected by the ban, and it adds up to about 67,000 green cards,” Neumann said.
She noted that because restrictions were implemented after the fiscal year had already begun, some visas were likely issued before enforcement took effect.
“If roughly one quarter of those visas were already used — about 17,000 — that leaves approximately 50,000 unused family-based green cards,” she explained.
If visa processing remains suspended for the rest of the fiscal year, those unused visas would likely roll over into the employment-based quota starting October 1, 2026, which marks the beginning of the 2027 fiscal year.
“That may open up 50,000 additional green cards to be added to the employment-based quota for 2027,” Neumann added.
Potential Impact on Skilled Workers and Employers
If the spillover materializes, it could:
- Reduce wait times for employment-based green card applicants
- Benefit H-1B workers, STEM professionals, healthcare workers, and international graduates
- Provide relief for individuals stuck in multi-year backlogs, particularly from countries like India and China
Immigration attorneys say this could be one of the largest single-year employment-based quota boosts in recent history — especially meaningful given the long wait times many skilled migrants currently face.
“This could meaningfully move priority dates forward for thousands of applicants,” said one immigration policy analyst.
A Contradiction: Stricter Immigration, Yet More Green Cards for Workers?
While the Trump administration has pushed for stricter immigration controls, the spillover effect highlights a legal loophole within the system that could inadvertently expand legal immigration through employment channels.
The administration has promoted:
- Expanded country-based bans
- Stricter vetting and processing requirements
- Reduced humanitarian and family-based immigration
- Tighter enforcement of legal immigration programs
Critics argue these policies have slowed green card approvals even for lawful applicants, making the system more restrictive despite employer demand for skilled labor.
Trump’s Hardline Immigration Stance
President Trump has continued to emphasize hardline immigration rhetoric, stating his intent to dramatically curb migration.
In a recent Truth Social post, Trump wrote:
“I will permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries to allow the U.S. system to fully recover, terminate all of the millions of Biden illegal admissions, and remove anyone who is not a net asset to the United States.”
His administration maintains that tighter controls are necessary to protect national security, jobs, and economic stability.
Long-Term Impact: Millions Fewer Green Cards Expected
A report from the National Foundation for American Policy, a nonpartisan think tank, estimates that up to 2.4 million fewer immigrants could obtain green cards by the end of Trump’s second term due to restrictive immigration measures.
“The administration may want to permanently end certain green card programs, but the legal framework makes it difficult to dismantle them without Congressional approval,” said Ricky Murray, former USCIS chief of staff for Refugee and International Operations.
This suggests that while executive actions can slow processing, eliminating green card categories entirely would require legislative reform.
What Green Card Applicants Should Know
Immigration experts advise prospective applicants to:
- Monitor Visa Bulletin priority date movement starting late 2026
- Prepare documentation early if applying through employment-based categories
- Stay updated on policy shifts, court rulings, and visa quota updates
While the spillover remains dependent on ongoing restrictions, attorneys say it represents a realistic opportunity for thousands of workers who have faced prolonged uncertainty.
“This could be a rare window of faster movement in employment-based green card categories,” Neumann said.
Bigger Picture: Immigration at a Crossroads
The projected visa spillover underscores a broader reality:
U.S. immigration policy is increasingly shaped by political ideology, executive action, and global geopolitics, often producing unexpected outcomes.
While family-based applicants in affected countries may face longer delays, employment-based immigrants — particularly those already working legally in the U.S. — could see new momentum.
As policymakers debate the future of immigration, the 2027 fiscal year may mark a turning point for skilled migrants seeking permanent residency.
