India has emerged as the strongest performer among major global economies in the post-pandemic era, according to a new analysis shared by Harvard economist Jason Furman. His comparative growth chart, posted on X, illustrates how real GDP across leading economies has moved relative to their pre-Covid trajectories — and India stands out as the only major nation significantly exceeding its long-term trend.
Furman’s graph tracks the performance of the US, Euro Area, China, Russia, and India from 2019 to the projected third quarter of 2025. While other economies continue to reflect lingering pandemic damage, India’s growth line rises distinctly above trend, reaching +3% in 2024 and potentially +5% by Q3 2025.
Furman stressed that India’s remarkable climb is not a temporary rebound but a direct outcome of structural strengths, including digital infrastructure, investment-friendly reforms, and a stable macroeconomic framework.
A Deep Slump, Followed by Diverging Recoveries
The chart shows all major economies suffering steep declines in 2020:
- Euro Area: –25%
- China: –10%
- US: –5%
- India: –5%
- Russia: –8%
Since then, each nation’s recovery path has varied dramatically.
The United States bounced back fast, helped by massive fiscal support such as the American Rescue Plan, enabling the US to stand roughly +2% above trend by 2025. Even so, India’s rise far surpasses America’s post-pandemic revival.
India’s Strongest-in-Class Growth
India not only returned to its pre-Covid trend by 2022 but surged past it. Furman highlighted:
- 2022: India regains trendline
- 2024: Touches +3%
- Q3 2025 projection: +5%
According to Furman, India’s sustained growth momentum is built on:
- Expanding domestic consumption
- Strong investment flow
- Rapid digital infrastructure rollout (UPI, Aadhaar, e-governance)
- Production-linked incentives driving manufacturing
- A stable policy environment
Meanwhile:
- China remains weighed down by real-estate stress and the after-effects of zero-Covid, lingering around –5% by 2025.
- Russia, constrained by sanctions post-Ukraine invasion, stays near –8%.
- Euro Area, hit by energy shocks and inflation, remains around –3%.
- The US, though recovering, shows concentration risks — Furman noted that 92% of US growth in early 2025 came solely from AI-driven data center investments.
Global Institutions Echo Confidence in India’s Momentum
International agencies agree that India is set to remain the fastest-growing major economy.
- ICRA forecasts GDP growth of 7% in Q2 FY26, with industrial output rising to a five-quarter high of 7.8%.
- Moody’s Ratings projects growth of 7% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026, calling India the clear outperformer in Asia-Pacific (excluding Greater China).
- Across APAC, Moody’s expects growth to average just 3.4% — far below India’s pace.
IMF estimates also suggest India could sustain 7–8% annual growth, powered by digital expansion, manufacturing incentives, a youthful workforce, and resilient services exports.
Economists increasingly describe India not just as a standout performer, but as a development model for other emerging economies navigating global uncertainty.
