President Donald Trump is actively pursuing normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, aiming to expand the Abraham Accords during the upcoming visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House. Trump views Saudi Arabia’s inclusion as key to long-term stability in the Middle East, boosted by the current fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. However, despite Trump’s optimism, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to join the accords immediately, with internal assessments suggesting a potential agreement might come by the end of his second term.
A significant obstacle is Saudi Arabia’s insistence on a clear path toward Palestinian statehood, a condition Israel strongly opposes. While Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman might be more flexible than his father, King Salman, Saudi leadership emphasizes that Palestinian statehood is vital for any normalization deal. Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace plan could be presented as a framework toward this goal, although it risks alienating Israeli support if it involves specific benchmarks or timelines.
The recent Gaza conflict, Israeli military actions, and ongoing settler violence have deepened regional distrust and complicated the situation. Visuals of devastation in Gaza make it politically difficult for Saudi Arabia to move forward quickly with normalization. Additionally, the crown prince is expected to seek formal U.S. security assurances and a potential deal to purchase advanced F-35 fighter jets. However, such a sale is uncertain due to concerns about maintaining Israel’s military edge and preventing sensitive technology transfer, particularly given Saudi Arabia’s relations with China.
Trump’s strategy includes showing openness to Palestinian aspirations to ease Saudi concerns and advance his broader Middle Eastern peace agenda. The visit presents an opportunity to strengthen U.S.-Saudi relations and possibly lay initial groundwork for normalization in coming years, tethered to progress on the Palestinian question and regional security reforms. However, significant headwinds remain, and any deal will require careful balancing of the complex interests of all parties involved.
