India has recently completed its operations at the Ayni air base in Tajikistan, ending a presence that lasted nearly two decades. Reported pressures from China and Russia are believed to have significantly influenced Tajikistan’s decision not to renew India’s lease of this key military facility.
The Ayni air base once gave India a critical strategic foothold in Central Asia, allowing it to extend its reach beyond South Asia without navigating Pakistan’s airspace restrictions. Established during a 2002 agreement, the base played a pivotal role during Afghanistan’s turbulent years, including aiding India’s evacuation efforts after the Taliban regained control.
Tajikistan, bordering Afghanistan, China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, became a focal point for regional power dynamics involving India, China, and Russia—all nuclear-armed states vying for influence. In 2021, Tajik authorities informed India that the lease would not be extended, initiating the withdrawal of Indian personnel and military assets, completed by early 2023.
India maintained a varied military presence at Ayni, including Indian Air Force helicopters, maintenance facilities, and briefly some fighter aircraft. The strategic value of the air base declined significantly after Afghanistan’s recent political changes, diminishing India’s operational needs in the region.
Tajikistan’s decision is widely seen as conforming to Moscow and Beijing’s preferences, mindful of their own strategic interests in limiting foreign military influence in what is traditionally considered their sphere. China has been actively pushing for greater regional collaboration with Russia and India under initiatives that seek to counterbalance U.S. global influence, though tensions between these nations persist.
Despite the closure of the Ayni base, India continues to safeguard its regional interests through diplomatic channels and other security arrangements, reflecting the ongoing complexity of Central Asian geopolitics.
