Recent betting data shows a sharp decline in Donald Trump’s odds of being awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. A popular prediction platform now estimates his chance at just 2.7%, down from a peak of around 4.9%.
Meanwhile, traditional bookmakers have also adjusted their forecasts. One sports betting outlet now offers 5/1 odds (roughly 16.7%) for Trump to win—down from prior odds of 2/1 (33.3%) that followed the announcement of a Gaza peace initiative that he supported.
Trump has publicly pushed for recognition by the Nobel Committee, arguing that failing to receive the prize would be “a big insult” to his country. He has also received nominations from several governments and leaders around the world. Nevertheless, his odds have continued to fall as other candidates and organizations gain favor.
As of the latest market snapshot, Trump trails behind entities like Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, which now lead predictions, as well as humanitarian organizations and international courts. The final laureate will be announced on October 10, 2025, with all deliberations remaining confidential.
